Rutgers-Led Team Uses New Technique to Predict Sea Breezes

The behavior of offshore sea breezes, and how the ocean influences them, have largely been mysteries until now, said lead author Greg Seroka, who earned a doctorate in physical oceanography at Rutgers and is a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientist.

“We’ve developed a technique to characterize and predict sea breezes, which could be critically beneficial for offshore wind turbine construction planning, operations and maintenance – and help make wind a reliable substitute for fossil fuels,” said Seroka.

The technique combines a sophisticated statistical analysis technique with a weather forecasting model to assess sea breezes near-shore and offshore. Focus was the New Jersey Wind Energy Area which is a federally designated zone off Ocean, Atlantic and Cape May counties where huge wind turbines may be built on the east coast of the U.S.

During the summer, sea breezes often arise on hot afternoons when energy demands peak – but conditions change when winds from the southwest push warm surface water away from shore. This causes upwelling of much colder bottom water that hits beaches, chills swimmers, and causes offshore sea breezes to begin about five hours earlier than normal and become more intense. The study, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, also found that winds blowing over coastal lands keep near-shore sea breezes from moving inland, but the land-based winds have little effect on sea breezes offshore.

Based on these findings, sea breezes offshore will be much more predictable for the offshore wind industry. The Rutgers researchers’ next steps include learning more about all types of sea breezes to improve their prediction.