Unprecedented tax credit clarity supports a near-term installation boom in the US wind market

US wind developers are set to take advantage of the final stretch of the production tax credit (PTC), installing more than 30GW of new capacity over the next three years. Following this boom, annual wind installation volumes will begin to decline as the production tax credit (PTC) phase-out begins, though projects built in 2021 with access to the 80% PTC will remain cost-competitive with solar PV and gas capacity in several states.

Drivers and barriers influencing wind capacity installations in the forecast period include carbon policies, interest from the commercial and industrial (C&I) sector and the rapid evolution of promising battery storage and EV technology, as well as plummeting costs of solar PV power and the extreme possible outcomes of actions undertaken by one of the most unpredictable presidents in US history.

Three state-level competitive solicitations for offshore wind capacity have now concluded successfully, awarding offtake contracts and financial support to approximately 1.8GW of offshore wind projects in federal waters off the coasts of four states. In all, the forecast assumes more than 5GW of new offshore wind capacity will be operational by YE/2027, but this will require inter-state and inter-developer coordination in the first half of the next decade before a domestic supply chain can develop to stabilise the sector’s volatility.

In Canada, MAKE’s forecast assumes less than 9GW of new wind capacity will be installed between 2018 and 2027. As support schemes end in Ontario, Quebec, and Nova Scotia while demand for electricity in the region falls, and political backlash threatens established procurement mechanisms, policy changes incentivise a significant program of new wind build in Canada’s most carbon-intensive provinces, Alberta and Saskatchewan.