Ten Year Review of the International Wind Power Industry 1995 to 2004 New forecast for 2015 Long term Scenario for 2025

BTM Consult ApS, has today released a special report on the international Wind Power Industry. The report gives a comprehensive review of the decade, 1995-2004, covering markets, supplies and consolidation of the Wind Power Industry.

Two new Scenarios for future development of wind power is presented:

A short term Forecast for 2015 and a long term Scenario for 2025.

Forecast to 2015, (Business as Usual, but with higher oil & gas prices):
• Annual installation will increase from 2004’s figure of 8,152 MW to 32,720 MW in 2015
• Cumulative capacity will increase from 2004’s figure of 48,000 MW to 271,512 MW
• The average growth in annual installation for the whole period is 13.5% p.a.
• The average growth in cumulative installation for the whole period is 17.1% p.a.
• The fastest growing regions will be America and Asia (Namely countries as USA, China and India)
• The Forecast for 2015 represent an total investment cost of US$ 220-250 billion

Scenario for 2025, ”Environment and Security of Supply focused Policy”:
• Wind power will in 2025 have reached a global penetration of 8.6 %, from an aggregated installation of more than 1million MW wind power capacity
• The annual installation of new capacity by end of the scenario reach 115,000MW per year – about 14 times today’s installation rate (2004).
• America, Asia and Europe will be of equal size in terms of installed wind power capacity.

For the long term Scenario as well as for the Forecast for 2015, it is suggested that oil- & gas prices will maintain a level of US$40-50 per barrel, making wind power electricity highly economic attractive.

Along with, the Ten Year Market Review, The Forecast and the Long Term Scenario, the report assess some of the trends in recent Wind Power Development. These are : Implications of Large Scale Wind Power in modern Electric Grid System, and the Technological Development
BTM Consult ApS
Birger T. Madsen
btm@btm.dk or pk@btm.dk

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