Aegir Insights research: Turkey in the lead as new offshore wind markets emerge around the Black and Caspian Seas

The market report examines eight emerging offshore wind markets located around the Eastern Mediterranean, Black and Caspian Seas: Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.

Turkey could have turbines in the water by 2030

Due to strong political commitment to energy transition and an already well-developed local supply chain for onshore wind, Aegir Insights expects the Turkish market to take off first. If an auction is carried out and a winner announced by the beginning of 2024, Aegir Insights expects Turkey to have OSW deployed by 2030.

However, uncertainty regarding financing could mean longer lead times, and a preference for building more land-based wind first could push the date by which offshore wind is operational in Turkish waters back to the early 2030's.

Playing catch-up: Romania and Bulgaria

Turkey is the most mature market for offshore wind currently, however Aegir Insights’ research shows that Romania and Bulgaria have shown very positive signs recently and could end up rivalling Turkey in market attractiveness as they boast bigger technical capacity.

Romania especially has access to strong winds over shallow waters, providing the country with great options for fixed-bottom offshore wind. While the country does not yet have a specific OSW policy, it is committed to the EU target of 300 GW offshore wind by 2050, and the Romanian Parliament is working on draft offshore wind legislation as well as a Marine Spatial Plan.

Bulgaria also has better technical potential than Turkey, and with a national target of 4,5 GW of wind power by 2050 and commitment to offshore wind via EU, offshore wind is expected to make an appearance in the country’s energy planning soon. Like Romania, Bulgaria is also working on a Marine Spatial Plan, and the two neighbouring countries are cooperating on this via the EU-supported MARSPLAN project.

The best wind will remain unexploited over the Caspian Sea – for now

While the Caspian Sea has the best wind resources in the region and shallow waters optimal for fixed-bottom turbines, Aegir Insights’ doesn't expect to see build-out from the markets surrounding it – Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan – in the foreseeable future, as these markets have access to cheap energy from fossil fuels and likely won’t prioritize offshore wind.

However, Azerbaijan has taken small steps towards political action on offshore wind development as the World Bank is assisting the country with developing a roadmap for developing the first offshore wind farms in the Caspian Sea.

The full report covers build-out as well as market drivers and LCOE-levels. Get in touch to learn more about our research subscription service here.