U.S. Energy Department Publishes Short-Term Energy Outlook

EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants to rise from 35% in 2018 to 37% in 2019 and in 2020 while the share of electricity generation from coal will continue to fall from the average 25% in 2019 to 23% in 2020.

The nuclear share of generation was 19% in 2018, and EIA forecasts that it will stay near that level in 2019 and in 2020. The generation share of hydropower is forecast to average slightly less than 7% of total generation in 2019 and in 2020, similar to 2018.

Wind, solar, and other nonhydropower renewables together provided about 10% of electricity generation in 2018. This number is likely to rise to 11% in 2019 and 13% in 2020. This year, wind’s annual share of electricity generation will exceed hydropower’s share for the first time.

EIA forecasts that wind generation will rise from 753,000 megawatt hours per day (MWh/d) in 2018 to 861,000 MWh/d in 2019 (a share of 8%). Wind generation is projected to rise to 963,000 MWh/d (a share of 9%) by 2020.

After rising by 2.9% in 2018, EIA forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decline by 1.6% in 2019 and by 0.5% in 2020. The 2018 increase largely reflected increased weather-related natural gas use because of additional heating needs during a colder winter and for higher electric generation to support more summer cooling use than in 2017. EIA expects emissions to fall in 2019 and in 2020 because of forecasted temperatures that will return to near normal and natural gas and renewables making up a higher share of electricity generation. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic growth, energy prices, and fuel mix.