WWEA - World Wind Energy Report 2009 - Part II

Continental distribution:
The most dynamic progress of the wind industry took place in Asia, followed by North America and the focus of the global wind sector moved further away from Europe.

For the first time, Europe accounted for less than half of the total capacity: In the past years, Europe’s share had gone down from 65,5 % in 2006 to 61 % in the year 2007, 54,6 % in 2008 down to 47,9 % in 2009.

While five years ago Europe dominated the world market for wind turbines with 70,7 % of the new capacity, in 2009, Europe fell back to number three and only accounted for 27,3 % of the new installed turbines (2008: 32,8 %), closely behind North America (28,4 %, after 32,6 % in 2008) Asia became the new continental leader, accounting for 40,4 % of the newly installed wind turbines (31,5 % in 2008).

Latin America (1,5 %, up from 0,6 %) and Africa (constantly at 0,5 %) still counted for only minor shares of the total capacity. Both continents were able to increase substantially their shares in new installations to 1,5 % in the case of Latin America (2008: 0,4 %) and 0,4 % in the case of Africa (2008: 0,3 %).

Africa:
All wind turbines installed in Africa in 2009 had a capacity of 770 Megawatt (0,5 % of the total worldwide capacity), out of which 169 Megawatt were added, in two countries, Egypt and Morocco. Although Africa was already on a comparatively low level, the growth rate of 28 % was again below the global average of 31,6 %.

However, an increasing number of African governments were getting aware of the potentials of wind energy in their countries and showed interest in setting up the necessary frameworks. A major breakthrough was the introduction of the first feed-in tariff on the continent by the South African National Electricity Regulator NERSA – whose effective implementation will be decisive in the year 2010. With the new regulations in place, South Africa has the potential to take the lead in Sub-Saharan Africa and to become an example for other countries in the region.

New wind projects are on the way in the leading countries Egypt and Morocco, but also in new markets like in the already mentioned South Africa, in Ethiopia, Kenya, Namibia, Tunisia as well as in Cap Verde.

It is encouraging to see that industrial activities in manufacturing of wind turbines have started on the continent as well, mainly in Egypt. It can be expected that the creation of stable markets on the continent has the potential to lead to the establishment of domestic wind industries in several African countries.

In light of the fact that the majority of the African population still has no access to electricity grids, small, decentralised and stand-alone wind energy systems, in combination with other renewable energies, will have to play a key role. This process of deploying technologies for rural electrification is still in its early stage. The main limiting factors are still the lack of access to know-how as well as to financial resources.

In this context, the outcome of the UN climate change discussions and the potential establishment of a Global Fund for Renewable Energy Investment would offer huge opportunities for many African countries to bypass one of the major barriers for wind energy investments: the lack of financing options.

Asia:
Asia became the world’s wind locomotive in the year 2009, mainly due to the two large markets China and India. The total installed wind capacity in Asia reached 40,0 Gigawatt (25,1 % of the global capacity). The continent had the second highest growth rate of all world regions (63,3 %, after 54,1 % in 2008) and added 15,5 Gigawatt in 2009.

In the fourth consecutive year, China doubled its installations and became number one in terms of new installations and number two in terms of total wind capacity, with 26 Gigawatt. This impressive pace of wind deployment reflected clearly the priorities of the Chinese government to achieve a sustainable energy supply system that is based to a major degree on domestic renewable energy resources. China also introduced in 2009 a feed-in tariff which guarantees a fixed remuneration over the lifetime of a project.

For the first time, Chinese wind turbine manufacturers were amongst the top five manufacturers worldwide, although they did not yet start to export their products on a noteworthy level and almost exclusively supplied the domestic Chinese market. 2010 may mark the starting year for the Chinese export of wind turbines to other parts of the world.

The second largest Asian market remained India, with a 14 % growth rate reaching a total capacity of 11 Gigawatt. Further modest growth can be expected in the future. The Indian wind industry became a global player in the past few years and will expand this role in the next years, based on the success of a robust home market.

Three medium-size Asian markets were Japan (total capacity 2 Gigawatt), the island of Taiwan (436 Megawatt) and South Korea (364 Megawatt). It has to be stated that, beyond these five markets, there are still huge potentials untapped on the continent and that many countries have not yet looked seriously into wind technology.

Potentially promising markets are for example Iran, Pakistan, the Philippines or Vietnam, and major wind farms are on the way in countries like Jordan or Mongolia.

Australia and Oceania:
The region added 555 Megawatt in the year 2009, reaching a total capacity of 2388 Megawatt. The growth rate of 30,3 % was only slightly below the global average. Both in terms of new as well as total capacity, the region represented 1,5 % of the global capacity – far more than the region represents in terms of population.

Especially New Zealand with an installed capacity of 511 Megawatt and a growth rate of 50,8 % showed a major increase, whileustralia had a growth of 25,6 % and a total installation of 1,877 Megawatt. Australia set up a renewable energy target for the year 2020 of annually 45,000 GWh, split between large scale and domestic installations which is expected to attract further investment and growth.

Europe:
With a share of 47,9 %, almost every second turbine installed worldwide could still be found in Europe: The European wind sector added 10’474 MW in the year 2009, substantially more than in the previous years: 8,607 MW in 2007 and 8,928 MW in 2008. Both in terms of total and additional capacity, Germany (25,770 Megawatt/1,880 Megawatt) and Spain (19,149 Megawatt/2,460 Megawatt) were still by far the biggest markets, but also with modest growth rates (7,9 % and 14,7 %).

European medium-sized markets with strong growth of around 30 % were Italy (4,850 Megawatt/new: 1,114 Megawatt), France (4,521 Megawatt/additional: 1,117 Megawatt), and the United Kingdom (4,092 Megawatt/added: 894 Megawatt). Very dynamic growth could be seen in some Eastern European countries: Estonia (81,8 % growth, 142 Megawatt total capacity), Lithuania (68,0 %, 91 Megawatt), Hungary (58,3 %, 201 Megawatt) and Poland (41,1 %, 666 Megawatt).

The Danish, German and Spanish wind turbine manufacturing industries were still dominating in many wind markets around the world and are expected to continue their leading role in the coming years, although new international competitors are expected to come up in Asia and in America.

An increasing interest in promotion of community based wind farms can be observed in several European countries and also on the European level. While there is a strong and continuous tradition in such approaches especially in the Nordic countries as well as in Germany, also e.g. in the United Kingdom community power seems to play a still small but increasing role.

At the same time Europe is the leading continent in offshore installations where 99 % of the offshore wind turbines can be found. European discussions about a supergrid connecting offshore wind farms of the countries around the North Sea seem to offer promising prospects for this technology.

Latin America:
With 113,3 % increase, Latin America showed the highest growth rate of all world regions and reached a total capacity of 1’406 Megawatt. This development, after several years of stagnation, is mainly due to the two largest markets, Brazil (78,5 % increase, total 600 Megawatt) and Mexico (372,9 %, 402 Megawatt).

Especially Brazil is in the position to establish itself as the leading wind country in the region that also has a strong domestic manufacturing industry, with several international companies already producing wind turbines in the country.

Major wind farms were also installed in Chile, Costa Rica, the Netherlands Antilles and Jamaica. Mainly Brazil, Chile and Mexico offer interesting prospects in the near future and are expected to inaugurate major wind farms also in the year 2010.

North America:
Again in the year 2009 North America showed strong growth above the global average (39,4 %), reaching a total capacity of 38’478 Megawatt. The USA alone added 9,922 Megawatt, breaking a new record that only China exceeded, but still continued as world leader in overall capacity (35,159 Megawatt). Canada added 950 Megawatt to a total of 3,319 Megawatt.

In the light of the financial crisis, the federal government of the USA gave special incentives for investment in wind farms and, in addition, more and more US states started discussing and adopting favourable legal frameworks for wind energy in order to attract investment.

Even more than in Europe, community power approaches have become a driving force in the political discussion. The Government of Ontario introduced in the aftermath of the World Wind Energy Conference 2008 Community Power a Green Energy Act, which represents the first feed-in law in North America comprising tariffs for the different renewable energies, including wind. As a worldwide innovation, the Act offers special incentives for community and first nations based projects.
The example of Ontario already encouraged other jurisdictions in North America to follow with similar legislative proposals. It can be expected that more feed-in tariffs will be implemented in the near future.

Future prospects worldwide: 1,900,000 Megawatt in 2020:
The wind sector showed impressive growth rates in the year 2009, in spite of the global financial crisis and against the predictions of various organisations. Increasing awareness of the economic, social and environmental benefits of wind energy will further boost investment in new wind farms.
Assuming that the global financial situation will improve substantially in the near future, many further world regions will be able to raise the funds that are necessary to speed up wind energy deployment.

Another positive factor will be the supportive role of the International Renewable Energy Agency – founded in January 2009 and becoming more operational in 2010. IRENA with its current 143 member countries will contribute to the global dissemination of know-how and through acting as a balancing lobby at international decision making processes such as the UN climate change negotiations.

On the one hand, the United Nations failed to come to a climate change agreement at the COP15 in Copenhagen – which might have brought additional incentives for investment in emission free technologies such as wind. However, wind investment so far was only marginally based on the contributions from carbon finance. Additional funds currently under discussion may give additional incentives and increase the growth rates of wind power mainly in the developing world.

Further growth can especially be expected in the leading wind markets China (with its recently implemented feed-in tariff), USA (with more and more favourable frameworks expected both on national but also on state level), Germany, Spain and India and in many further countries in Europe, especially in Eastern Europe, but also in many Asian and Latin American countries.
Major projects are also expected to be implemented in some African countries, notably in South Africa with its feed-in tariff and in North Africa. Another, often neglected success factor of wind are community power ownership models. Such models are re-gaining strength and are expected to contribute substantially to the further growth of wind power in many world regions, by mobilising additional economic and social support for wind technology. New and notable examples can be found in the United Kingdom (in particular in Scotland), Canada, Australia as well as in South Africa and in many other parts of the world.

Based on the accelerated growth rates, WWEA increases its expectations for the future growth of the global wind capacity: By the end of the year 2020, at least 1,900,000 Megawatt can be expected to be installed globally.

For more information please contact Trevor Sievert at ts@windfair.net