10-Year Outlook: More than 680GW of New Wind Power Will Go Live

The maturation of the European offshore sector continues to be a strong driver of wind in the region in the upcoming years. “With 16GW of offshore wind power capacity installed in Europe by the end of 2018 and more than 47GW expected to come online in the region from 2018 to 2027, the European offshore sector continues to be a focal point of growth for the wind power industry,” said lead author Luke Lewandowski, director of Americas power & renewables research. “The European offshore wind power experience has encouraged governments in other regions to support offshore wind to comply with carbon reduction strategies and renewable energy targets as well as more firmly secure domestic power supply.”

The governments of Japan and South Korea have recently put their vote behind offshore wind, resulting in an increase in the outlook for 2 GW for each country over the next decade.

Other countries are highly dependable on their governments, like the United States where recent votes in favor for renewable-loving politicians are resulting in increased numbers in the outlook. “Attractive price signals are expected to motivate an increase in state-level procurement activity from both pioneering states, such as Massachusetts and New York, as well as new entrants over the long-term, such as California and Delaware,” said Lewandowski. The upgrade will increase installed offshore capacity in the U.S. to approximately 10GW by the end of 2027, representing 15% of all new capacity over the 10-year outlook.

Policy commitments in California and industry confidence in exploiting lower value levels of the production tax credit, justify a modest upgrade in the US onshore sector. Cost-out gains and higher production expectations from new turbine technology boost prospects for workable project economics under the phased down incentive.

Countries in Scandinavia, namely Sweden, Norway, and Finland, represent the most significant changes to Wood Mackenzie’s onshore wind power outlook this quarter. Increasingly competitive cost levels and an expectation for higher power prices across Europe have triggered a flurry of project investment announcements and power offtake commitments in the sub-region, specifically from the increasingly important corporate and industrial sector. With a more than 5GW upgrade QoQ, these three countries will account for 15% of new onshore capacity installed in Europe over the next 10 years.

The Polish government awakened its recently dormant onshore market with the award of about 1GW of capacity and the expectation of additional auction rounds. Downgrades in Ukraine and Russia QoQ, however, dampen the boost from Eastern Europe’s largest wind power market.

To read the whole story, head over to Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables.