Global: Q4/2015 Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update

MAKE’s Q4/2015 Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update presents an analysis of global and regional wind power installation forecasts through 2024.

Demand driven from expiring policies, primarily in the US and in Germany, exceeds expectations analyzed in the Q3 analysis by 5.5GW from 2015 to 2018. Despite this near-term upgrade, long-term policy uncertainty, particularly in emerging offshore markets in Europe, lowers confidence in growth from 2019 to 2024 by 4.3GW. These two periods of adjustment result in a modest 0.2% upgrade over the 10-year outlook.

Near-term growth in the US is upgraded by 24% QoQ as PTC-eligible projects have attracted greater demand from offtakers than anticipated. In Latin America, a downgrade triggered by Brazil’s faltering economy and a lack of further policy support in Peru headline capacity changes in the sub-region; elsewhere project schedules have only shifted.

Varying policy conditions across European markets continue to influence fluctuations in the outlook. Developer ambition to install projects in Germany before a complete policy transition in 2019 results in a 17% boost from 2015 to 2019. The outlook for Romania, conversely, is reduced by 43% over 10 years due to ongoing legislative uncertainty.

Growth in China remains consistent with the Q3 analysis, as development activity and order intake are aligned with growth expectations. Rapid installation activity in 2015 has resulted in high levels of curtailment, which will continue as the market focuses increasingly on grid connection ahead of the transition to new FIT levels in January.

The outlook for Asia Pacific excluding China is reduced slightly compared to Q3. An adjustment in India constitutes the largest QoQ change as ongoing grid inadequacy limits growth. Clarification of development status and project delays represent the balance of capacity downgraded from Q3. 

Firm turbine order intake in Q1-Q3/2015 increased by 44% YoY to more than 36GW. Although order intake in China has slowed since Q2, the market still led the industry with more than 1.7GW recorded in Q3. Demand for offshore turbines increased 17% YoY and strong QoQ order intake supports growth projections in Northern Europe for 2018.

The Q4/2015 Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update includes a detailed market forecast update for more than 50 key and emerging markets for wind power from 2015 to 2024. The forecast data includes a split of expected onshore and offshore development, and analysis of the latest wind turbine order and pricing trends.