Power Plants for the Future

The growth of renewable energies in Germany has been strong in the last years due to the EEG. Only recently, political insecurity led to a stutter in the motor of what is called the 'Energiewende'. But growth alone is not enough to ensure energy stability for the future of Germany. Renewable energy creates different challenges than the production of conventional electricity: Renewable energy fluctuates, making it necessary to develop energy storage.

Another problem is that most renewable energies – with the exception of offshore wind – are not able to provide for the country's basic load making it necessary to also use conventional power plants as back-up. In Germany the basic load has been provided by nuclear and coal power plants so far. This option though will at least partly run out when the last nuclear power plant will shut down in 2022.

But the search for alternatives is already on. Modern gas-fired power plants are able to adapt their production to the energy amount needed in no time. Another advantage is their low-carbon output which would help Germany reach its climate goals.

The paradox of the Energiewende is in full swing at the moment: Low prices lead to an extended use of coal making modern gas-fired plants unprofitable. Some of them already had to be shut down permanently while coal plants are continuously running. In 2013 this development led to the country's highest carbon dioxide output for more than 25 years.

So how do Germany's future power plants have to be constructed to prevent failing climate goals? Consulting company 'enervis energy advisors' commissioned a study to take a closer look at the recommendations to create clean energy.

If renewable energies continue to grow at a steady rate in the next three years, the need for base-load power plants will decline by 30%. In 2030 it will be less than 10%. Instead the use of mid-load power plants will increase. Mid-load power plants are fired by gas or steam and can be used on a daily or weekly basis – just as long as needed to support renewables. Demand for such power plants will increase to 60% in the future. Furthermore gas turbines and storage facilities for peaks in demand and a certain flexibility in the production chain are required.

Most of Germany's power plants don't match these requirements at the moment. Coal-fired plants are responsible for 90% of the CO2 emissions hindering Germany reaching its climate goals. If emissions continue to grow at this rate, the fail will be around 35% in 2040 – despite a strong development of renewable energy. The consequences of this development have been drastically stated in the last report on climate change by the IPCC.

To make a relevant change Germany will have to shut down at least some of its coal plants immediately and instead support the construction of more gas-fired plants. Furthermore the market design will have to be adjusted and more money will have to be invested in the research for energy storage the study recommends.

The political aspect is left out by the study though. More gas-fired plants pose the question of the origin of the natural gas. The recent conflict between the EU, Ukraine and Russia shows the problem of importing natural gas from Russia or the Middle East with its political unstableness.

So the only way to provide long-term energy security for Germany is to further invest in renewable energies, especially the offshore wind industry.