EREC Analysis of the 2030 Impact Assessment: Understanding the 2030 Climate and Energy Framework

The analysis here depicted shows the results of the most important indicators for the four “enabling policies scenarios” assessed by the European Commission representing a range of ambition in terms of GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions reductions, EE (energy efficiency) and RES (renewable energy sources) policies for 2030.

The least ambitious scenario is the GHG40 (or “GHG-only” scenario) with a 40% GHG reduction target, followed by scenarios GHG40/EE, GHG40/EE/RES30 and the most ambitious scenario GHG45/EE/RES35, corresponding to a 45% GHG reduction target, ambitious EE policies and a 35% RES target.

EREC’s main comments on the Impact Assessment can be found in the executive summary. The first few comments are as follows: 

• Why should the GHG emissions reductions be limited to 45% as a maximum figure, which would actually only achieve an 80% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050¹? 
• Why is there is no scenario setting three targets for GHG, EE and RES, as an EE target is never considered in the IA? The GHG target should not limit the value of a RES target, but rather be set according to RES and EE targets.
• A clear separation of the three energy sectors, power, heating and cooling and transport is missing, as well as between the different RES technologies. Furthermore, background data on capital costs and learning rates for all the assessed technologies is also lacking.

To read the full analysis, please visit the EREC website.

¹ European Heads of States have committed to a GHG emissions reduction of 80% to 95% by 2050.