According to Platts Power UK more than 20 GW of renewable energy is planned in the UK

A survey by Platts Power UK publication shows that more than 21 gigawatts (GW) of new, large (over 10 megawatts) renewable power projects are being planned by developers. If all of the projects go ahead, and some large, nuclear and some coal plant stopped generating, the UK could have more than 14 % of its generation mix accounted for by renewable plant by 2010. The vast majority of the planned renewable projects are wind farms which would roughly be equivalent to 10GW of conventional electricity generation (by load factor). Additionally, if all the projects are built, then the price of Renewables Obligation Certificates (ROC)-- the mechanism used to fund green energy capacity-could crash, Platts predicts. If government targets are reached, Platts predicts that the value of ROCs would fall to below the crucial 30 pounds Sterling mark by 2011.

Electricity suppliers have to provide a proportion of their electricity from green projects. ROCs are used as a "proof of purchase" to show that this has been accomplished. Theoretically, once an annual obligation target is reached, the value of any extra ROC to suppliers is zero. "Projects are coming on-line at a rapid rate", said Dr Dominic Maclaine, editor of Platts Power UK. "This is reflected in the price of Renewables Obligation Certificates (ROCs) which we believe is set to fall in the next financial year as a result." Platts ROC price marker estimates that this price drop will be from around 47 pounds to 42 pounds as more new renewable capacity starts generating fully and more biomass is co-fired in coal plants. However, many of the projects are ultimately likely to run into planning or other difficulties, so the total installed capacity could be a lot lower.

Platts is planning to hold a web conference on the Platts ROC price marker:

WHAT: Future Value of Renewables Obligation Certificates in the UK. The current value of renewable obligation certificates is leading to a boom in the development of renewable generation projects in the UK, but the future price of ROCs is uncertain. In this web conference we'll present Platts ROC Price Marker which predicts the future price of ROCs over the next five years. We'll also be exploring current and potential future factors that may affect ROC prices.

WHEN: 9 March 2005, 3:00 p.m. GMT

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